CONDITIONS NECESSARY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL DENUCLEARIZATION OF NORTH KOREA

Ultimately, the successful denuclearization of North Korea will likely require the following conditions as a minimum:

 

·      Kim Jong Un’s commitment to denuclearization and his ability to actualize such a policy within the DPRK without opposition.  This is not as simple as it appears.  The DPRK has invested heavily in its nuclear weapons programs, and presumably, there are interest groups within national security and military-industrial organs who could oppose giving up weapons.  While it appears that Kim Jong Un has control over party and military structure (any opposition appears to have not fared too well so far) the possibility nevertheless exists of the emergence of serious opposition to actual denuclearization

·      South Korean commitment not to alter or destabilize political structure of DPRK,

-       No direct or indirect challenges to regime legitimacy and political structure

-       North Korea will likely evolve into Chinese-style communism, i.e., closed political structure with open economy

-       Human rights to be overlooked for a time.  China can help North Korea in this regard.  Not likely to be a problem for South Korea itself

·      DPRK’s need for South Korean and American investment and technology to develop its mineral resources and economy, which will not be forthcoming unless the country agrees to denuclearize.  The value of these golden carrots must be seen in context of Kim Jong Un’s speech before the 7^th Korean Worker’s Party Congress from May 6 to May 9, 2016, after a 36-year hiatus.  Frank Ruediger of the University of Vienna most appropriately titled the Congress “A Return to a New Normal.”[1]  In his speech:

Kim Jong Un refrained from following the typical socialist fallacy of promoting producer goods over consumer goods. Rather, he emphasized the need for a balanced development of the sectors of the national economy. In fact, he even sounded slightly critical of past economic policies when he stressed that past investments, which were mainly in the economy’s foundations, need to translate into actual improvements of the people’s lives. Developmental economists will feel reminded of the debate between supporters of balanced and unbalanced growth in the 1960s. Once again, we see that many of North Korea’s problems are far from unique.[2]

·      China’s determination to ensure a nuclear-weapons free Korean peninsula, and willingness to cooperate with the United States, North Korea and South Korea in pursuit of that goal,

·      Security guarantee to DPRK provided by the United States, China, and perhaps Russia.  In Kazakhstan’s case, security assurances were provided by Permanent Five (P-5) states of the United Nations (UN) Security Council (UNSC)[3],

-       Will likely require an iron-clad guarantee and some security mechanism as remedy for a breach thereof

-       May require US to remove forces from South Korea as a security guarantee to North.  On the other hand, Soviets agreed to German unification without requiring unified Germany withdrawal from NATO

·      The personal involvement of senior-level policy officials on all sides, and

·      U.S. technical and financial assistance through the Nunn-Lugar CTR program to support the elimination of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) infrastructure and expand the scope of U.S.-DPRK relations.  While originally “created for the purpose of securing and dismantling weapons of mass destruction and their associated infrastructure in the former states of the Soviet Union … CTR assistance has expanded to non-Soviet countries such as the South Asia region, Iraq, Afghanistan, China, and African nations such as Djibouti, Kenya, South Africa and Uganda.” [4]  The CTR provides a credible and time-tested mechanism for the elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

·      As was the case in Kazakhstan, it will be Kim Jong Un’s “support for, and ability to lead the political process without domestic opposition”[5], as well as his ability to implement the process that will be keys to successful denuclearization. 

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[1] Frank Ruediger, The 7th Party Congress in North Korea: A Return to a New Normal,  38 North (May 20, 2016) http://www.38north.org/2016/05/rfrank052016/ accessed on September 10, 2016.

[2] Reudiger, Id.

[3] Dena Sholk, The Denuclearization of Kazakhstan (1991-1995), Georgetown University INAD 912, April 30, 2013; https://isd.georgetown.edu/sites/isd/files/JFD_Sholk_Denuclearization.pdf (accessed on January 8, 2017), p. 3

[4] Fact Sheet: The Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program.  The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation,  June 1, 2014;

 https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-the-nunn-lugar-cooperative-threat-reduction-program/  accessed April 10, 2018.

[5] Sholk, p. 3.

Denuclearization of Kazakhstan as Model for North Korea

In a March 25, 2012 opinion piece in the New York Times, with respect to the Iranian nuclear program, Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev wrote:

With independence, we became the world’s fourth-largest nuclear power. One of our first acts as a sovereign nation was voluntarily to give up these weapons.

We must understand that it is not easy for countries to give up their nuclear arsenal or to renounce the intention of developing their own weapons. The truth is that if just one nation has nuclear weapons, others may feel it necessary to do the same to protect themselves. This is why nuclear proliferation is such a threat to the security of us all and leads to greater risk of an illegal, dangerous trade in weapons and material.

The real intent of Iran’s nuclear program is causing concern across the world. Recognizing the right of all responsible members of the international community to develop peaceful atomic energy under the safeguards promoted by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Kazakhstan has used its close diplomatic relations with our neighbor across the Caspian Sea to urge Tehran to learn from our example.

I am convinced that openness and the development of peaceful relations with neighbors will increase rather than diminish Iran’s status and influence, help lower tensions in the Middle East, and make it easier to find fair, lasting solutions to the problems in that region.

With our neighbors, we implemented the idea of establishing a nuclear-weapons-free zone in Central Asia. We propose to use this experience to raise the number of such zones worldwide, including in the Middle East. We also need to demand legal guarantees from nuclear states that they will not use these weapons against those without them.

I would like to say this to all countries: Kazakhstan’s experience shows that nations can reap huge benefits from turning their backs on nuclear weapons. I have no doubt that we are a more prosperous, stable country, with more influence and friends in the world because of our decision.[1]

President Nazerbayev’s analysis with respect to Iran applies with equal effect to North Korea.  A nuclear North Korea is a “threat to the security of us all and leads to greater risk of an illegal, dangerous trade in weapons and material.” 

On April 24, 1995 Kazakhstan became nuclear weapons free.[2]  On the 20^th anniversary of Kazakhstan becoming nuclear-weapons free, Kazakh foreign minister Erian Idrissov wrote:

Kazakhstan is now recognized globally as a passionate campaigner for peace and nuclear disarmament. It is also a date which continues to be celebrated by our citizens who know all too well the terrible damage that nuclear weapons cause.

Kazakhstan is among the few countries that have suffered most from the human and environmental devastation of nuclear testing. The Semipalatinsk site, in the north of our country, for more than four decades was the scene of more than 450 nuclear explosions in the air, above and under the ground. Many were held when little was known about the long-term impact of radiation with precautions often either non-existent or rudimentary.

But over time, the terrible effects became all too clear. Many thousands of people have died from radiation diseases. Hundreds of children have been born with disabilities.

This history explains the determination of Kazakhstan and its citizens to campaign for a permanent end to nuclear testing and, in the long run, a nuclear weapon-free world. We don’t want another country or its people to suffer such a terrible fate.

We hope our country’s history and example can provide encouragement to other nations to turn their back on these terrible weapons and make our world and futures safer.

It is clear that North Korea has opted for nuclear security to ensure its survival.  But as the experience of Kazakhstan shows, nuclear weapons are not needed for security.[3] 

Denuclearization of North Korea, if ever, should follow the model of Kazakhstan with a security guarantee to North Korea like that given by the United States to the Soviet Union on Cuba in 1962 Cuban missile crisis. 

Moreover, given Kazakhstan’s proposal for nuclear-weapons-free zones in Asia[4], and Foreign Minister Idrissov’s assertion that ‘country’s history and example can provide encouragement to other nations to turn their back on these terrible weapons and make our world and futures safer”[5] the Kazakh’s would respond favorably to American requests for Assistance in this regard.

The United States ought to engage Kazakhstan to assist American goal of the denuclearization of the Korea Peninsula, and Kazakhstan would be willing to assist the United States in this effort. 

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[1] Nursulatan Nazarbayev, “What Iran Can Learn from Kazakhstan”, New York Times, March 25, 2012 (accessed on December 19, 2016)

[2] Erian Idrissov, Kazakhstan:  Nuclear Weapons Free for 20 Years”, The Diplomat, April 24, 2015;   http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/kazakhstan-nuclear-weapons-free-for-20-years/ (accessed on December 19, 2016)

[3] Ibid.

[4] Nursulatan Nazarbayev, “What Iran Can Learn from Kazakhstan”, New York Times, March 25, 2012 (accessed on December 19, 2016)

[5] Erian Idrissov, Kazakhstan:  Nuclear Weapons Free for 20 Years”, The Diplomat, April 24, 2015;   http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/kazakhstan-nuclear-weapons-free-for-20-years/ (accessed on December 19, 2016)