Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Denuclearization of Kazakhstan as Model for North Korea



In a March 25, 2012 opinion piece in the New York Times, with respect to the Iranian nuclear program, Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev wrote:

With independence, we became the world’s fourth-largest nuclear power. One of our first acts as a sovereign nation was voluntarily to give up these weapons.

We must understand that it is not easy for countries to give up their nuclear arsenal or to renounce the intention of developing their own weapons. The truth is that if just one nation has nuclear weapons, others may feel it necessary to do the same to protect themselves. This is why nuclear proliferation is such a threat to the security of us all and leads to greater risk of an illegal, dangerous trade in weapons and material.

The real intent of Iran’s nuclear program is causing concern across the world. Recognizing the right of all responsible members of the international community to develop peaceful atomic energy under the safeguards promoted by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Kazakhstan has used its close diplomatic relations with our neighbor across the Caspian Sea to urge Tehran to learn from our example.

I am convinced that openness and the development of peaceful relations with neighbors will increase rather than diminish Iran’s status and influence, help lower tensions in the Middle East, and make it easier to find fair, lasting solutions to the problems in that region.

With our neighbors, we implemented the idea of establishing a nuclear-weapons-free zone in Central Asia. We propose to use this experience to raise the number of such zones worldwide, including in the Middle East. We also need to demand legal guarantees from nuclear states that they will not use these weapons against those without them.

I would like to say this to all countries: Kazakhstan’s experience shows that nations can reap huge benefits from turning their backs on nuclear weapons. I have no doubt that we are a more prosperous, stable country, with more influence and friends in the world because of our decision.[1]

President Nazerbayev’s analysis with respect to Iran applies with equal effect to North Korea.  A nuclear North Korea is a “threat to the security of us all and leads to greater risk of an illegal, dangerous trade in weapons and material.” 

On April 24, 1995 Kazakhstan became nuclear weapons free.[2]  On the 20th anniversary of Kazakhstan becoming nuclear-weapons free, Kazakh foreign minister Erian Idrissov wrote:

Kazakhstan is now recognized globally as a passionate campaigner for peace and nuclear disarmament. It is also a date which continues to be celebrated by our citizens who know all too well the terrible damage that nuclear weapons cause.

Kazakhstan is among the few countries that have suffered most from the human and environmental devastation of nuclear testing. The Semipalatinsk site, in the north of our country, for more than four decades was the scene of more than 450 nuclear explosions in the air, above and under the ground. Many were held when little was known about the long-term impact of radiation with precautions often either non-existent or rudimentary.

But over time, the terrible effects became all too clear. Many thousands of people have died from radiation diseases. Hundreds of children have been born with disabilities.

This history explains the determination of Kazakhstan and its citizens to campaign for a permanent end to nuclear testing and, in the long run, a nuclear weapon-free world. We don’t want another country or its people to suffer such a terrible fate.

We hope our country’s history and example can provide encouragement to other nations to turn their back on these terrible weapons and make our world and futures safer.

It is clear that North Korea has opted for nuclear security to ensure its survival.  But as the experience of Kazakhstan shows, nuclear weapons are not needed for security.[3] 

Denuclearization of North Korea, if ever, should follow the model of Kazakhstan with a security guarantee to North Korea like that given by the United States to the Soviet Union on Cuba in 1962 Cuban missile crisis. 

Moreover, given Kazakhstan’s proposal for nuclear-weapons-free zones in Asia[4], and Foreign Minister Idrissov’s assertion that ‘country’s history and example can provide encouragement to other nations to turn their back on these terrible weapons and make our world and futures safer”[5] the Kazakh’s would respond favorably to American requests for Assistance in this regard.

The United States ought to engage Kazakhstan to assist American goal of the denuclearization of the Korea Peninsula, and Kazakhstan would be willing to assist the United States in this effort. 





[1] Nursulatan Nazarbayev, “What Iran Can Learn from Kazakhstan”, New York Times, March 25, 2012 (accessed on December 19, 2016)
[2] Erian Idrissov, Kazakhstan:  Nuclear Weapons Free for 20 Years”, The Diplomat, April 24, 2015;   http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/kazakhstan-nuclear-weapons-free-for-20-years/ (accessed on December 19, 2016)
[3] Ibid.
[4] Nursulatan Nazarbayev, “What Iran Can Learn from Kazakhstan”, New York Times, March 25, 2012 (accessed on December 19, 2016)
[5] Erian Idrissov, Kazakhstan:  Nuclear Weapons Free for 20 Years”, The Diplomat, April 24, 2015;   http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/kazakhstan-nuclear-weapons-free-for-20-years/ (accessed on December 19, 2016)

Denuclearization of North Korea: A Search for New Alternatives


In the ‘The Mouse that Roared
’ a 1955 novel by Irish writer Leonard Wibberley is about a  tiny country in Europe that feels compelled to declare war against the United States in order to be defeated and get aid.  Instead, through a series of mishappenings, Fenwick acquires a prototype doomsday device—the Q Bomb—and defeats the United States. 
           
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (hereinafter “North Korea”) is indeed a modern-day Fenwick, a mouse that roars in the international arena, except that (i) it is very much real; (ii) regime defeat is not an option; and (iii) its “Q Bomb” arsenal of real nuclear weapons is not humorous. But will it accept denuclearization if the ‘price’ is right?

U. S. President George W. Bush came close to drawing a red line on the North Korean nuclear issue in May 2003, when he declared that the United States and South Korea “will not tolerate nuclear weapons in North Korea.”[1]  Three years later President Bush’s tolerance had grown…

It is the responsibility of U.S. policymakers is to secure the safety of the homeland.  If a nuclear North Korea is seen as a threat to the vital security interests of the United States, it is a problem that must be addressed in earnest.[2

The United States ought to seek the assistance/good offices of Kazakhstan to assist us in denuclearization of North Korea, and even let the Kazakhs to lead in the effort. This, of course, assumes Kazakhstan’s willingness to do so.  Kazakhstan is one of the few countries to have successfully given up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees, economic incentives, and a leading role in this endeavor.  Moreover, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazerbayev’s call for a nuclear-free Central Asia and the Silk Road initiatives provide a tailor-made institutional framework to incorporate North Korea into a larger Central-East Asian security mantle, thus lessening North Korea’s security fears and weans it from a nuclear-weapons-based security.

Kazakhstan is a model to North Korea of a nuclear state who has successfully removed all nuclear weapons inherited from the former Soviet Union from its territory and terminated all nuclear weapon programs. 



[1] David E. Sanger, “For U.S., a Strategic Jolt After North Korea’s Test”, The New York Times, October 11, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/learning/teachers/featured_articles/20061011wednesday.html (accessed on December 26, 2016)
[2] Other views contend that after the fall of the Soviet Union, we are in search of enemies.  If North Koreans did not exist, we would have invented them. For purposes of this paper, I assume North Korea nuclear weapons to be a vital security threat to the United States.